SHORTS ON HIGH VOLUME

[Alechko]

SIMO @ $8.25 AH

30% TOMORROW MORNING
30% @ $7
40% @ $6

[Alechko]

СИМО
может еще упасть на $1-2 :titanik:
шортавать очень рискованно

[Alechko]

SIMO
в Августе 2007 кто-то $15м в нее влил
у нех еще вро 15М бэйaут осталось
очень подходящее время
думаю акции улетят быстро за эту цены
i'm in

[Alechko]

I think what we've seen in the last month is the unwinding of a hugely profitable trading strategy followed by hedgees and institutional traders in the first six months of the year. It involved going long oil--buying the commodity and oil stocks--and going short financials. At it's height in June this strategy had returned 125% for the year, according to the Financial Times. That worked so well because financials were sinking like a stone and oil was rebounding from its decline to $125. But as the financials got cheaper and oil got more expensive, traders started to unwind their play. They bought financials stocks to cover their shorts and sold oil to take profits and to raise the cash to cover their shorts. So financials boom and oil sank. You can see the trade unwinding in the futures numbers were we moved from heavily long oil to recently a short position. I think traders will start to reverse the long financials/short oil trade they've got on now over the next week or so. The futures market has swung from being net long oil to net short in the last few days. And with a steady drone of bad news--Merrill yesterday--financial stocks don't look like such low risk, sure things as they did before they rallied 50%. I believe that we'll see a swing back to oil--especially since we're about to see earnings reports from the oil majors over the next 10 days--with money coming out of financials. If I'm right, it's too late to sell oil--we ought to be buying instead. $122 was the 100-day moving average. We're through that today. $110 a barrel is the 200 day moving average. I'd expect that to hold since at $110 going long oil is a low risk trade. All this is short term. Longer term important to note that $110 is below the $120 or so reversal during the last oil price dip. I'd say we're seeing oil set up in a trading range for the rest of 2008 rather than looking for a resumption of a big rally that takes us way above $145 on a lasting basis. One caveat, though. Thanks to the financial crisis there's so much less liquidity in the futures market that volatility is way up. Price swings day to day are increasing. Anyway, my two cents on oil.

Jim Jubak

[Alechko]

Алечко верит JJ
завтра утречком $2к в каждый
ECA
PBR
VLO
SLB
APC
COP
RIG
:19:

[Alechko]

тут ошибочка - это проценты за один день

sorry my bad

:leader: :leader: :leader:
ABK 20.11 %
PMI 15.72 %
WB 14.67 %
WM 12.44 %
FNM 11.54 %
LEH 10.54 %
WABC 9.32 %
CBON 8.79 %
FRE 8.42 %
JPM 8.20 %
ZION 8.06 %
IRE 7.84 %
CRBC 7.67 %
MTB 5.14 %
UCBH 3.27 %
BANR 2.61%

[Паша]

Алечко, если не секрет...
Какую чистую прибыль (в % от инвестиционного капитала) удаётся получить в среднем за месяц?

[Alechko]

Алечко, если не секрет...
Какую чистую прибыль (в % от инвестиционного капитала) удаётся получить в среднем за месяц?

свои личные данные на форум не выношу
а так зависит от стратегии, чуйства рынка и потраченого времени
дэйли трэйдерс который сочитают лонг/шорт/техникал и фандаментал в среднем 1-3% в день
професионалы do 5-7%

[Alechko]

СИМО @ $8.25 АХ

30% ТОМОРРОЩ МОРНИНГ
30% @ $7
40% @ $6

на $8.25 сработало
на $7 сработало
не уверен что упадет до $6

[Alechko]

Алечко верит JJ
завтра утречком $2к в каждый
ECA
PBR
VLO
SLB
APC
COP
RIG
:19:

ECA 2.06 %
PBR 2.98 %
VLO 4.17 %
SLB 3.04 %
APC 1.47 %
COP 2.48 %
RIG 2.27 %

not so bad for 2 hours of trade
going to add 2k in each