Российская Экономика

[Порyчик]

Лучше пусть купят что нибудь заменить уазики. А потребительство это хорошо. Хрен его знает. Я не против России. Я просто общаюсь с друзьями - они говорят херовенько, вижу народ, который переезжает сюда (от хорошей жизни что ли?), плюс наведался в родной универ - ставка препода 300 баксов в МЕСЯЦ. По всем МОИМ каналам жить стало лучше, но так же хреново, а здесь у вас непонятный оптимизм.

Вот ЛаМан, бросай свои дела и двигай в Россию, че здесь сидеть то, там же хорошо?

Олег, приехав в другую страну, все приходится с нуля начинать. Однажды уехав, и пережив это, уже не каждый хочет повторить ощущение.

Даже если в данной системе хуже, энергии, чтобы переместиться в другую систему требуется больше, чем компенсировать разницу между системами (сбивчиво, попробуйте разобраться).

Кроме того, улучшение произошло лишь за последние пару лет-год-полтора.

Кроме того, везде есть плюсы и минусы. Есть страны, где вообще не надо работать и фрукты сыплются с деревьев, а есть места, где работают на 50-градусном морозе по колено в мазуте.

Если на это согласны, значит видят плюсов больше.

У нас беседа какая-то pointless

[nat123]

Но если у тебя хороший английский и образование легче, в материальном плане

[Алексей145]

Economist Intelligence Unit, The Russian business outlook 2007-10
Consumer goods sales growth vary between 15-40% depending where they are on the investment curve
The largest western players (sales over $500m) have seen their top line sales come down to 15-22%
Companies that are smaller in Russia are recording sales growth of 30-40%
40% is definitely the very high end of the scale and relates usually to companies below $100m sales
B2B is ticking along with most companies reporting sales growth in a range of 28-36%
IT is very strong, but big deals and changes in government policy/personnel can shift figures radically
But Russia remains the fastest growing IT market in the world and western IT companies are capturing more market share
Russia remains one of the best premium price markets in the world, perhaps the best
If you have a quality product, you can sell it at a quality price more easily in Russia than anywhere in the world
The majority of executives in 2007 still agree with this
Survey results show that Russia is the best performing market in CEEMEA and EMEA regions
This has been the case for the last 5 years and the next 5
100% of executives surveyed (!) expect it to be so for the next 3-4 years
A decade of booming business
As Nestle CEO Peter Brabeck stated, “In 10 years Russia will be our biggest European market” and he said that 3-4 years ago
Russia accounts for 22% of the CEE market for the average western company
This is on a par with Poland
But the trend will be for Russia to expand its market share consistently among nearly all companies in the next 1-3 years
For comparison: Poland accounts for 22% market share while its GDP is 15% of the region’s
Russia has 22% market share but its GDP is 44% of the region’s
In other words Russia has huge potential to grow its market share among western companies
In 2006 93% of companies reported sales growth and the remaining 7% stable sales
Two-thirds of companies reported double-digit profit growth while 30% reported single digit or stable profit growth and 6% saw falling profits
This made Russia the leading market by far and in almost all commercial sectors
The outlook appears extremely strong
100% of companies anticipate sales growth in 2007 with 85% looking for double-digit growth
Overall companies see a tightening of profits in 2007 but still 70% expect double digit profit growth as well
As elsewhere, consumer goods it getting tougher
While all such companies grew double digits sales, some 40% saw flat profits
One IT executive notes that with the stronger rouble and the rising cost base profits are getting tighter
Nestle reports that it can raise prices 5% in Russia but salaries are rising 12-15%
Executives need to manage HQ expectations on profit trends because:
Salary levels will trend upwards
Office rentals will stay high
Advertising costs will not fall much in next 1-2 years
But the level of profits can be remarkable: on FMCG company reports the second best profit level in absolute terms in the whole of Europe in Russia
The absolute amount of profit 5 times that of either Germany or Poland
Compared with other markets (Poland, Germany, Japan) consumers goods companies are in a sweet spot in Russia

More western industrial companies are also going beyond the pure selling model and looking for JVs and acquisitions
The IT sector is still very strong, affected occasionally by seasonal factors
The market per se is the fastest growing in the world at 25% per annum compared with about 114% in China, 20% in Turkey and 11% in CEE
But this means little
Most western IT companies are growing at least twice the market arte at about 50%
And several of the big majors are reporting sales growth of 70-100%
Companies in IT and apparel have noticed a significant improvement which is largely due to Russian auths. taking WTO entry seriously
The four big risks
Oil price: this in fact looks nearly all upside for Russia
Rouble: currency strength not weakness is the problem
Political developments: possible over-interference in non-energy sectors could be a growing threat
but this to date is manageable risk
Not enough investment in health and education: this is a negative feature
quality of Russian staff is starting to weaken
investment in health now is a bit better but not enough (exacerbating demographic trends)
The economy continues to boom
And Russia is the most macro-economically stable country in Europe!
stabilisation fund of $140bn (8% of GDP)
Central bank reserves of $420bn (23% of GDP)
budget surplus of 4%
total debt at a mere 8% of GDP
This means the economy can weather severe storms
Russia has the potential to be one of the world’s most powerful economies in the next 7-20 years
At $1,300 bn GDP in 2007 Russia is already the 6th largest economy in the world…bigger than the UK
Government plans a one trillion dollar investment into dilapidated infrastructure
This is the world’s largest investment programme outside China and, unlike China, Russia is not going it alone
It wants public-private investment – from private Russian investors and foreign ones
Western funds are pouring into the electricity sector; 26 nuclear reactors are planned in the next 12 years
Railways will get $400bn by 2030 and airports $30bn
The good news is that government will not treat foreign investors in infrastructure as they do in the energy sector
In infrastructure the Kremlin wants and needs foreigners
Russia makes money on oil at $14 per barrel, good money at $18 and it’s party time at $23 per barrel
It will be making huge profits on oil for the next 10 years
Russia is going to be one of the most cash-rich countries in the world in the next decade
Its oil stabilisation fund has been supplemented by a second Future Generations Fund
Its Sovereign Fund already has $30bn per annum at its disposal to buy assets in the West
Russia is unlikely to follow China’s steps in propping up the US dollar by buying low-yield US treasuries
Instead Russia (and Russian firms) will go out shopping
But what if the oil price falls? Well, first of all it won’t – or at least not enough to damage the Russian economy
The gloomiest forecasts put oil at $60 per barrel in 2012
But the point is, even if the price does fall, Russia is cushioned
One of the most astonishing statements in years was made by the Russian government at the start of 2007
The global oil price can fall to $20 per barrel and remain at that price for three years and the Russian budget will not be damaged

[Алексей145]

Economist Intelligence Unit, The Russian business outlook 2007-10
Real GDP has averaged annual growth of 6.6% this decade, one of the fastest in CEE
Recent quarterly growth has been averaging 8%
Many commentators have argued constantly in the last years that Russian GDP would start to fall, but this has consistently proven to be wrong
Over the next five years, we expect growth of about 6%+, with a small risk factor that it could fall to 5-5.5%
The growth rate for fixed investment has trebled between 2005 and 2007 to 20%
Investment will stay buoyant in 2008 and decline to a good 15% annual growth in 2009-12
This will be a strong catalyst to companies selling manufactured, industrial and engineering products
And this part of the economy needs it as 80% of Russian machinery is over 15 years old
Oil, energy and metals will remain fundamental catalysts – but many other sectors are strong
People often say: “But Russia is just an energy play, there’s nothing else”
This was true in the past and is not a ridiculous comment now, but can be countered by reference to strong growth in:
food and beverages, retail, consumer goods, banking, real estate, construction, mobile telephony, aerospace, mining, metallurgy, automotive and parts of engineering and parts of chemicals
Consumer spending is a big growth stimulant
Private consumption has risen on average 11% in the last three years and will stay at that level until 2010
As in much of CEE real wage growth and credit expansion are fuelling the consumption boom
Real wage trends in Russia are the best in the world!
Real wages (after inflation) were growing in 2005-06 by 18%+ the highest level the world
In 2007 they are still rising at 15% and will grow by 10% per annum in the next three years
These figures compare starkly with those in developed markets and in other emerging ones:
Real wage growth annual average in 2004-08
Germany 0%
Japan 0%
USA 0.2%
CEE 4%
China 10%
Russia 14%
These numbers are shocking and help explain why some western markets are so dreadfully difficult for FMCGs
GDP per capita in 2007 was $13,400 – now just 15% smaller than Poland’s and already above that of Croatia!
Average monthly per capita income has been rising at 35% cagr during 2000-07
Our own estimate is that retail sales have risen 25% cagr since 2001
On the back of this growth Russia has been rated the second most attractive consumer market in the world and is now the world’s 12th largest
This is why several Russian retail companies now report gross sales over $1bn – the number will grow
The Russian middle class is large and growing fast
In 2008 there will be 33m households (89m people) with income over $10,000 and this will rise in 2010 to 40m households (104m people)
The pace of upward change is accelerating sharply
In 2006 we anticipated some 53% of Russian households would have an income over $10,000 in 2010
Our estimate today is that 74% of households will be above $10,000 in 2010
For households with income over $15,000, there are 19m today (52m people) and there will be 27m in 2010 (72m people)
The contrast with China is sharp:
There are too few households with an income over $15,000 to count for statistical purposes
China today has 31m people in households with income over $10,000, compared to Russia’s 89m
In 2010 China will have 89m and Russia 104m in households over $10,000
This explains why several leading FMCG companies have Russia sales that represent 60-75% of those in China although the population is only about 10%
China will catch up to the Russians by about 2012-2014 for figures relating to the absolute number of people
There is a 0-5% chance of a major crash in Russia
There is a 20% chance of a moderate GDP slow down in the next 3-5 years
But the 75% scenario is for continued solid/steady GDP growth
Internal and external balances look very strong for next 2-4 years and steady for another 5 years
These are some of the best macroeconomic risk ratings of any market
If the Central Bank and government have to face a moderate or even severe downturn they have enough reserves to do this

[Mikhail-u]

У нас беседа какая-то поинтлесс

система поинтлесс, потому, что ЛАман выглядит как [sales representative] как минуму на пол-ставки в среде любителей-покупателей..

[OlegRed]

Алексей. Постить огромные статьи наковырянные в поисковиках не следует. Мы тут не дебилы и при желании можем найти в гугле хоть черта лысого. Откуда дровишки? Госкомстат репортует? Второе сомнение коренится в изначальном уровне и методологии. К примеру - потребление товаров возросло на 40 процентов. По сравнению с чем? И кто говорит?

[OlegRed]

Олег, приехав в другую страну, все приходится с нуля начинать. Однажды уехав, и пережив это, уже не каждый хочет повторить ощущение.

Даже если в данной системе хуже, энергии, чтобы переместиться в другую систему требуется больше, чем компенсировать разницу между системами (сбивчиво, попробуйте разобраться).

Кроме того, улучшение произошло лишь за последние пару лет-год-полтора.

Кроме того, везде есть плюсы и минусы. Есть страны, где вообще не надо работать и фрукты сыплются с деревьев, а есть места, где работают на 50-градусном морозе по колено в мазуте.

Если на это согласны, значит видят плюсов больше.

У нас беседа какая-то pointless

Ниче не пойнтлес. Моя цель - общение и сбор информации. От сумы и тюрьмы не зарекайся. Может моим косточкам тоже лежать в Тамбовской губернии.

[Mikhail-u]

China will catch up to the Russians by about 2012-2014 for figures relating to the absolute number of people

:grum: :grum:

[OlegRed]

:grum: :grum:

Если Раша поможет ядерными ударами.

[Mikhail-u]

Если Раша поможет ядерными ударами.

Или Иран/Индия.