Re: Коронавирус
Originally Posted by Kapitula
COVID-19 Mortality Risk Calculation
Based on the information you have provided, the tool estimates that you have 0.02 (95% CI: 0.02 - 0.02 ) times the risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to the average risk for the US population.
Based on the estimated risk, you are categorized to be at Closer to or lower than average risk based on the following chart:
Fold-Risk Risk Category Color Code
<= 1.2 Close to or lower than average
> 1.2 to <= 2 Moderately elevated
> 2 to <= 5 Substantially elevated
> 5 to <= 10 High
> 10 Very High
Further, based on the information available from pandemic projections in your state of residence, the tool estimates an absolute rate of mortality of 0.7 (95% CI: 0.4 - 1.4 ) per 10000000 individuals in subgroups of the population with a similar risk profile to yours during the period of 04/10/2021 - 04/30/2021. This estimate is calculated based on the CDC's Ensemble mortality forecast data..
*95% CI: Error bounds with 95% confidence.
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About Us
Johns Hopkins & University Of Maryland Research Team
The tool is developed with supervision from Nilanjan Chatterjee, PhD, Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Biostatistics and Oncology, School of Medicine. Dr. Chatterjee's research over many years in the past have focused on developing and evaluating models for the assessment for individualized risks of non-communicable diseases integrating information on genetic, demographic, anthropometric, life-style and environmental factors. The trainees who led various data analyses included:
Neha Agarwala, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Jin Jin, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Post-doctoral Fellow
Prosenjit Kundu, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Post-doctoral Fellow
Yuqi Zhang, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University
The webtool was developed by Benjamin Harvey, DSc, a Senior Research Associate in the Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, and the lead data scientist for the laboratory of Nilanjan Chatterjee, PhD
Our Method
Understanding Our Methodology
Please find more information on our risk-score calculation below.
COVID-19 Score Calculation
The current risk-score calculation was developed using information on the risk for COVID-19 mortality associated with age, gender, race, social deprivation and 12 different health conditions published in a recent large UK study. The risk score was adopted to US setting by information on mortality rate by age and various race/ethnicity groups published by the Center for Disease Control. Further relative risks for individuals are provided by standardization with respect to average risk for the US population, calculated using available information on prevalence and co-occurrence of various risk-factors available form national databases. The model has been validated based on tens of thousands of recently observed deaths and projected risks across US cities and counties. Finally, the tool combines information of relative-risk with state-level forecasted death rates from a pandemic scenario model to estimate an absolute risk of mortality over a future specified time frame. A manuscript describing the details of the methods and showing projections of risk based on this model across a large number of US communities is published in Nature Medicine here.
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If you would like to contact us, please send any questions, comments, or suggestions to [email protected].
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