Real estate job: советы покупателям

[TheDreamer]

Похоже добавляем ещё год.

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The CEO of Fannie Mae, the largest financer and guarantor of U.S. home loans, predicted on Tuesday that the housing market downturn is likely to persist into 2010.
... American home prices will fall by 10 percent to 12 percent from their 2005 peak before the housing market can rebound - likely in 2010."
"Fannie CEO: sour housing market until 2010"

[Буржуй]

Sue McAllister
04:25 PM on Mon, January 14, 2008

Mortgage bankers looking at two more years of decline; plus some small numbers from December


The Mortgage Bankers Association today released a forecast in which the trade group's chief economist predicts a down year in 2008 for mortgage originations, followed by another down year in 2009. And even though economist Doug Duncan also predicts that rates for 30-year mortgages (conforming ones that is, of $417,000 or less) will rise to only 6.2 percent by the fourth quarter of this year, he does not think that will result in much of a boost in refinance actiivty. Lending criteria are tighter, and home prices are on the slide, either or both of which can make it harder to refinance.

"Total mortgage production will be down 16 percent to $1.96 trillion this year from a projected $2.34 trillion in 2007,'' the forecast says. "This would mark the first time since 2000 that total mortgage originations fall below $2 trillion." And the forecast predicts another 4 percent drop in 2009, to a total of $1.88 trillion in purchase and refinance mortgages.

Those are some big nationwide numbers that are likely headed down. And now for some smaller, local numbers that moved down in December. This is from the "commentary" section of the January 2008 "market update" report prepared by San Jose broker Richard Calhoun, of Creekside Realty. The January report covers December data. Calhoun keeps daily tabs on multiple listing service data in Santa Clara County. An excerpt:

December 2007 had only 488 completed sales (closings) in SCC. That is the fewest of any month not only since 1998; but all the way back to 1984, when the MLS first started publishing statistics. Lower than September 2001, when the nation was stunned with 9/11. December 2007 is only 60% or less of any previous December, back to 1998 when we started gathering data.

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Ну и где те орлы которые со мной спорили что цены на дома идут и будут ити вниз пока не стабилизируются в 2009 году? Инк знает что пишет. Писаут.

[Буржуй]

forbes.com

Banking Bust: More To Come
Liz Moyer, 01.16.08, 4:30 PM ET

Banks have written down more than $100 billion since the summer. Yikes. Now the bad news: There are still billions worth of potentially toxic securities sitting on the books.

The additional $1.3 billion write-down disclosed by JPMorgan on Wednesday was just the latest loss big banks have reported in the fourth quarter. Merrill Lynch is expected to report a sizeable write-down when it reveals fourth-quarter numbers on Thursday, by some estimates in the neighborhood of $15 billion. Bank of America, Wachovia and other big lenders report next week and are also expected to write down billions of securities holdings.

At Citigroup, $37 billion of collateralized debt obligation exposure remains even after the bank wrote down an eye-popping $17 billion of its holdings in the fourth quarter. Of course that raises the likelihood that Citi will have further substantial write-downs in the quarters ahead. The bank reported a more than $9 billion loss in the fourth quarter because of the write-downs and related credit costs, the worst quarter in its history.

The self-inflicted water torture, taking the hits in increments, coincides with Citi's search for new capital. It raised another $14.5 billion of it from a consortium of investors, including its former Chief Executive Sanford I. Weill. It cut its dividend 41%, saving about $4 billion a year. But many believe it needs to go much further.

"They are dragging their feet," says Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, who estimates Citi will need to raise $30 billion of additional capital this year, somehow, some way.

Further write-downs will only hammer the stock more and hamper the bank's ability to go out and raise capital. Shares of Citi are trading around $26, down from a 52-week high of $55.

Analyst David Hendler of CreditSights estimates that Citi faces another $15 billion in write-downs of its credit derivatives holdings to bring it more in line with the valuation E*TRADE got for its assets in selling them to the Chicago hedge fund Citadel last fall. That valuation was 27 cents on the dollar. Citi's mark-to-model valuation on its portfolio was closer to 60 cents on the dollar.

"It is very difficult to forecast exactly where all this is going to go," said Gary Crittenden, Citi's chief financial officer, during a conference call Tuesday. "We certainly could have additional risk as we go into the first quarter and the second quarter of next year, but we have tried to be thoughtful about that in terms of the total amount of capital that we have raised."

The mortgage securities issues linger even as these banks face a daunting new issue, and one that has the potential to be far greater in scope: consumer credit, which is deteriorating. JPMorgan said non-performing assets rose 33% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter and are 81% higher than the end of 2006.

Consumer non-performing loans rose 37% from the third quarter and 82% from the end of 2006, with home and home equity loans being the worst of the problem but issues cropping up in auto loans and credit cards.

JPMorgan set aside another $2.3 billion for credit losses in the quarter, raising its total reserve to $10 billion. Dimon said consumer credit would deteriorate further this year, even without a recession as some have forecast.

At least it's got its CDO portfolio under control. JPMorgan has $2.7 billion of subprime mortgage exposure and $200 million of subprime CDOs remaining.

The bank "is exiting one set of problems and write-downs in one part of the company but now must face more significant issues in the other half," says Michael Mayo, an analyst at Deutsche Bank.

Rising consumer delinquencies, particularly in markets hard-hit by falling real estate prices, is the next big battlefront for banks. Citi also set aside $4 billion for credit costs, and another huge lender, Wells Fargo, said Wednesday net-chargeoffs in the quarter rose $1.2 billion, half of it from consumer real estate loans. Wells Fargo profits fell 38% in the quarter, to $1.4 billion.

"We're not predicting recession, it's not our job," Dimon said during a conference call Wednesday. "But we are prepared in almost every way," he said.

JPMorgan Chase, which so far has avoided the shelling that has hit rival banks in the credit crisis, disclosed a $1.3 billion fourth-quarter write-down and said it was "extremely cautious" heading into 2008. Profits of $3 billion, or 86 cents a share for the quarter, were 33% lower than the previous year and short of expectations.

"JPM has done a very good job at managing its risk exposures in all of its businesses," Goldman Sachs analyst William Tanona wrote in a note to clients. "However, with the economic environment weakening, credit quality trends, particularly in the consumer segments, will work against them in coming quarters."

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[TheDreamer]

Лучше вот это:

"... she completed appraisals on two houses in May and then quickly got a call from a WaMu sales manager demanding she change her outlook to "stable" so a loan could be approved. The WaMu sales manager also demanded Wertz change her appraisal process to produce higher prices for the properties she was evaluating ..."
"WaMu accused of appraisal fraud"

[NickTo]

Можно тут быстрый вопрос знатокам?
У меня сосед продает дом. Может ли мой знакомый сделать ему оффер, минуя агента и экономя комиссионные, ссылаясь на то что покупатель нашелся через соседа, а не агента?

[TheDreamer]

У меня сосед продает дом. Может ли мой знакомый сделать ему оффер, минуя агента и экономя комиссионные, ссылаясь на то что покупатель нашелся через соседа, а не агента?

Сосед заключил договор с агентом на продажу дома? Если да, то по-моему агенту положены комиссионные при любом раскладе.

[Most Wanted]

Можно тут быстрый вопрос знатокам?
У меня сосед продает дом. Может ли мой знакомый сделать ему оффер, минуя агента и экономя комиссионные, ссылаясь на то что покупатель нашелся через соседа, а не агента?

1.надо подождать когда закончится контракт
2.можно дать агенту отступные "под столом"

[TheDreamer]

"The median price of a new home sold in December came in at $219,200, down 10.4 percent from the $244,700 reading a year earlier."
"New home sales: Biggest drop ever"

[MrCrowley]

Всем здравствуйте. Может быть я задам глупый вопрос.... Но всё же...
Может ли человек, не являющийся гражданином США и не имеющий Грин Кард покупать в Америке недвижимость? И если может, то какой механизм этого? Спасибо.

[Krasota]

"The median price of a new home sold in December came in at $219,200, down 10.4 percent from the $244,700 reading a year earlier."
"New home sales: Biggest drop ever"

Just 10%. The tip of an iceberg.