Буржуй
01-17-2008, 04:39 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIg6JcBSO8Sw&refer=home#
By Shobhana Chandra
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=i0NjrYWTdPGc
http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/news/enlarge_details.gif (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=photos&sid=aIg6JcBSO8Sw)
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Builders in the U.S. broke ground on fewer houses in December, making the year's decline in homebuilding the worst in almost three decades, economists said before a report today.
Housing starts fell to an annual rate of 1.145 million, the lowest in 14 years, after a 1.187 million pace in November, according to the median forecast of 74 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Residential construction probably declined 25 percent last year, the most since 1980.
Building permits may also have fallen, suggesting the housing slump will deepen as it enters a third year and threatens to push the economy into recession. Rising foreclosures will throw even more houses onto the market, hurting property values and further discouraging construction.
``Housing activity weakened noticeably as the year concluded,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``With inventories high and credit restrained, housing activity will remain at depressed levels at least through the middle of the new year.''
The Commerce Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 1.05 million to 1.2 million.
Building permits, a sign of future construction, probably dropped to a 1.135 million annual pace, also a 14-year low, from 1.162 million. Survey estimates ranged from 1.05 million to 1.17 million.
Housing isn't the economy's sole headwind. The Labor Department may report at 8:30 a.m. that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 331,000 last week, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
Fed Action
Federal Reserve policy makers, including Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, have signaled they may take more aggressive action in response to the increasing risk of slower growth. Central bankers are likely to cut interest rates by half a percentage point when they meet this month, according to futures trading.
Bernanke will testify on the economic outlook before the House Budget Committee at 10 a.m. today.
``The demand for housing seems to have weakened further, in part reflecting ongoing problems in mortgage markets,'' Bernanke said in a speech in Washington on Jan. 10. ``We also see considerable evidence that banks have become more restrictive in their lending to firms and households.''
New-home sales will probably fall another 15 percent this year after tumbling an estimated 26 percent in 2007, according to a forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the industry's largest trade group. Sales of existing homes will fall 13 percent this year, the group said.
``Conditions continue to be challenging in our markets and are expected to remain so throughout 2008,'' Robert Schottenstein, chief executive officer of M/I Homes Inc., a homebuilder in the Midwest, Florida and Mid-Atlantic states, said in a statement on Jan. 10. The Columbus, Ohio-based company said sales fell in the fourth quarter.
Bloomberg Survey
================================================== ==============
Housing Building Initial Philly
Starts Permits Claims Fed
,000's ,000's ,000's Index
================================================== ==============
Date of Release 01/17 01/17 01/17 01/17
Observation Period Dec. Dec. Jan. 13 Jan.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median 1145 1135 331 -1.0
Average 1142 1131 333 -0.7
High Forecast 1200 1170 350 5.2
Low Forecast 1050 1050 310 -7.0
Number of Participants 74 45 33 51
Previous 1187 1162 322 -1.6
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. 1100 1100 330 3.0
Action Economics 1170 1170 330 0.0
AIG Investments 1165 --- --- 1.0
Aletti Gestielle SGR 1140 1140 340 -1.3
Analytical Synthesis 1095 1125 --- ---
Argus Research Corp. 1200 --- --- 5.0
Banc of America Securitie 1120 --- --- -1.0
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 1145 1147 331 5.2
Bantleon Bank AG 1140 1130 --- -3.0
Barclays Capital 1130 --- 340 -3.0
BBVA 1190 --- --- ---
Bear, Stearns & Co. 1150 1150 --- 0.0
BMO Capital Markets 1140 1140 330 -1.0
BNP Paribas 1117 --- 340 -7.0
Briefing.com 1160 1150 335 2.0
Calyon 1180 1140 --- -1.0
CIBC World Markets 1050 1100 --- ---
Citi 1120 1110 340 -5.0
Commerzbank AG 1150 1130 330 3.0
Credit Suisse 1140 --- --- ---
Daiwa Securities America 1100 --- --- ---
Danske Bank --- --- --- -2.3
DekaBank 1130 --- --- -4.0
Desjardins Group 1150 1130 330 -2.0
Deutsche Bank Securities 1163 1139 340 -2.5
Deutsche Postbank AG 1150 --- --- ---
Dresdner Kleinwort 1150 --- --- 3.0
DZ Bank 1140 1140 --- -3.0
First Trust Advisors 1155 --- 332 0.0
Fortis 1200 --- --- 0.0
FTN Financial 1160 1125 --- -5.0
Global Insight Inc. 1092 1113 --- ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1151 --- --- ---
H&R Block Financial Advis 1150 1128 --- -3.0
Helaba 1130 1135 --- -5.0
High Frequency Economics 1100 1100 350 -2.0
Horizon Investments --- 1130 --- -2.0
HSBC Markets 1130 1130 340 -3.0
Informa Global Markets 1170 1165 --- ---
ING Financial Markets 1157 1150 --- ---
Insight Economics 1130 --- 335 5.0
Intesa-SanPaulo 1150 1140 --- -2.0
J.P. Morgan Chase 1115 1110 330 -2.0
Janney Montgomery Scott L 1157 1130 --- ---
JPMorgan Private Client 1130 1130 335 -2.5
Landesbank Berlin 1140 1150 340 1.0
Lehman Brothers 1145 1135 330 0.0
Lloyds TSB 1175 1140 318 2.0
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 1125 --- --- 0.0
Merrill Lynch 1080 1050 350 -2.0
MFC Global Investment Man 1135 1125 330 ---
Mizuho Securities 1155 --- --- -7.0
Moody's Economy.com 1125 --- 330 1.0
Morgan Keegan & Co. 1185 1142 --- ---
Morgan Stanley & Co. 1150 --- --- ---
National Bank Financial 1130 --- --- ---
National City Bank 1140 1070 --- -4.0
Natixis 1140 --- --- ---
Nomura Securities Intl. 1180 1150 --- ---
Nord/LB 1160 1140 320 2.0
PNC Bank 1120 --- --- ---
RBS Greenwich Capital 1125 --- 310 ---
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 1125 1125 330 5.0
Scotia Capital 1160 1140 330 ---
Societe Generale 1150 --- --- 2.0
Stone & McCarthy Research 1150 --- 345 4.1
TD Securities 1136 --- --- ---
Thomson Financial/IFR 1160 1140 330 -0.5
UBS Securities LLC 1125 --- --- -5.0
Unicredit MIB 1160 1150 335 ---
University of Maryland 1175 1160 --- ---
Wachovia Corp. 1070 --- --- ---
Wells Fargo & Co. 1170 --- 330 0.0
WestLB AG 1146 1134 --- -2.5
Westpac Banking Co. 1158 --- --- ---
Wrightson Associates 1140 1110 335 5.0
================================================== ==============
To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington [email protected]
Last Updated: January 17, 2008 00:08 EST
By Shobhana Chandra
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=i0NjrYWTdPGc
http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/news/enlarge_details.gif (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=photos&sid=aIg6JcBSO8Sw)
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Builders in the U.S. broke ground on fewer houses in December, making the year's decline in homebuilding the worst in almost three decades, economists said before a report today.
Housing starts fell to an annual rate of 1.145 million, the lowest in 14 years, after a 1.187 million pace in November, according to the median forecast of 74 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Residential construction probably declined 25 percent last year, the most since 1980.
Building permits may also have fallen, suggesting the housing slump will deepen as it enters a third year and threatens to push the economy into recession. Rising foreclosures will throw even more houses onto the market, hurting property values and further discouraging construction.
``Housing activity weakened noticeably as the year concluded,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``With inventories high and credit restrained, housing activity will remain at depressed levels at least through the middle of the new year.''
The Commerce Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 1.05 million to 1.2 million.
Building permits, a sign of future construction, probably dropped to a 1.135 million annual pace, also a 14-year low, from 1.162 million. Survey estimates ranged from 1.05 million to 1.17 million.
Housing isn't the economy's sole headwind. The Labor Department may report at 8:30 a.m. that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 331,000 last week, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
Fed Action
Federal Reserve policy makers, including Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, have signaled they may take more aggressive action in response to the increasing risk of slower growth. Central bankers are likely to cut interest rates by half a percentage point when they meet this month, according to futures trading.
Bernanke will testify on the economic outlook before the House Budget Committee at 10 a.m. today.
``The demand for housing seems to have weakened further, in part reflecting ongoing problems in mortgage markets,'' Bernanke said in a speech in Washington on Jan. 10. ``We also see considerable evidence that banks have become more restrictive in their lending to firms and households.''
New-home sales will probably fall another 15 percent this year after tumbling an estimated 26 percent in 2007, according to a forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the industry's largest trade group. Sales of existing homes will fall 13 percent this year, the group said.
``Conditions continue to be challenging in our markets and are expected to remain so throughout 2008,'' Robert Schottenstein, chief executive officer of M/I Homes Inc., a homebuilder in the Midwest, Florida and Mid-Atlantic states, said in a statement on Jan. 10. The Columbus, Ohio-based company said sales fell in the fourth quarter.
Bloomberg Survey
================================================== ==============
Housing Building Initial Philly
Starts Permits Claims Fed
,000's ,000's ,000's Index
================================================== ==============
Date of Release 01/17 01/17 01/17 01/17
Observation Period Dec. Dec. Jan. 13 Jan.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median 1145 1135 331 -1.0
Average 1142 1131 333 -0.7
High Forecast 1200 1170 350 5.2
Low Forecast 1050 1050 310 -7.0
Number of Participants 74 45 33 51
Previous 1187 1162 322 -1.6
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. 1100 1100 330 3.0
Action Economics 1170 1170 330 0.0
AIG Investments 1165 --- --- 1.0
Aletti Gestielle SGR 1140 1140 340 -1.3
Analytical Synthesis 1095 1125 --- ---
Argus Research Corp. 1200 --- --- 5.0
Banc of America Securitie 1120 --- --- -1.0
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 1145 1147 331 5.2
Bantleon Bank AG 1140 1130 --- -3.0
Barclays Capital 1130 --- 340 -3.0
BBVA 1190 --- --- ---
Bear, Stearns & Co. 1150 1150 --- 0.0
BMO Capital Markets 1140 1140 330 -1.0
BNP Paribas 1117 --- 340 -7.0
Briefing.com 1160 1150 335 2.0
Calyon 1180 1140 --- -1.0
CIBC World Markets 1050 1100 --- ---
Citi 1120 1110 340 -5.0
Commerzbank AG 1150 1130 330 3.0
Credit Suisse 1140 --- --- ---
Daiwa Securities America 1100 --- --- ---
Danske Bank --- --- --- -2.3
DekaBank 1130 --- --- -4.0
Desjardins Group 1150 1130 330 -2.0
Deutsche Bank Securities 1163 1139 340 -2.5
Deutsche Postbank AG 1150 --- --- ---
Dresdner Kleinwort 1150 --- --- 3.0
DZ Bank 1140 1140 --- -3.0
First Trust Advisors 1155 --- 332 0.0
Fortis 1200 --- --- 0.0
FTN Financial 1160 1125 --- -5.0
Global Insight Inc. 1092 1113 --- ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1151 --- --- ---
H&R Block Financial Advis 1150 1128 --- -3.0
Helaba 1130 1135 --- -5.0
High Frequency Economics 1100 1100 350 -2.0
Horizon Investments --- 1130 --- -2.0
HSBC Markets 1130 1130 340 -3.0
Informa Global Markets 1170 1165 --- ---
ING Financial Markets 1157 1150 --- ---
Insight Economics 1130 --- 335 5.0
Intesa-SanPaulo 1150 1140 --- -2.0
J.P. Morgan Chase 1115 1110 330 -2.0
Janney Montgomery Scott L 1157 1130 --- ---
JPMorgan Private Client 1130 1130 335 -2.5
Landesbank Berlin 1140 1150 340 1.0
Lehman Brothers 1145 1135 330 0.0
Lloyds TSB 1175 1140 318 2.0
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 1125 --- --- 0.0
Merrill Lynch 1080 1050 350 -2.0
MFC Global Investment Man 1135 1125 330 ---
Mizuho Securities 1155 --- --- -7.0
Moody's Economy.com 1125 --- 330 1.0
Morgan Keegan & Co. 1185 1142 --- ---
Morgan Stanley & Co. 1150 --- --- ---
National Bank Financial 1130 --- --- ---
National City Bank 1140 1070 --- -4.0
Natixis 1140 --- --- ---
Nomura Securities Intl. 1180 1150 --- ---
Nord/LB 1160 1140 320 2.0
PNC Bank 1120 --- --- ---
RBS Greenwich Capital 1125 --- 310 ---
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 1125 1125 330 5.0
Scotia Capital 1160 1140 330 ---
Societe Generale 1150 --- --- 2.0
Stone & McCarthy Research 1150 --- 345 4.1
TD Securities 1136 --- --- ---
Thomson Financial/IFR 1160 1140 330 -0.5
UBS Securities LLC 1125 --- --- -5.0
Unicredit MIB 1160 1150 335 ---
University of Maryland 1175 1160 --- ---
Wachovia Corp. 1070 --- --- ---
Wells Fargo & Co. 1170 --- 330 0.0
WestLB AG 1146 1134 --- -2.5
Westpac Banking Co. 1158 --- --- ---
Wrightson Associates 1140 1110 335 5.0
================================================== ==============
To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington [email protected]
Last Updated: January 17, 2008 00:08 EST